The key is to solve overcapacity and straighten ou

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Resolving overcapacity and straightening out the relationship between the market and the government is the key

since 2012, the international market has remained depressed, the domestic economic growth has slowed down, and the problem of overcapacity in China's industrial sector has become more prominent. The traditional manufacturing industry generally has excess capacity, especially in steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass, shipbuilding and other industries; In the field of emerging industries, the overcapacity of polysilicon, photovoltaic microcomputer screen universal testing machine, control system batteries, wind energy equipment and other products is also quite serious. If excess capacity is not resolved and adjusted in time, some industries will fall into the dilemma of difficult transformation and upgrading for a long time, causing many new contradictions and even economic crisis

system distortion is the key to Chinese overcapacity

in the real economy, there are two different types of overcapacity, one is the relative excess demand of production capacity under market conditions, and the other is the systematic overcapacity caused by the distortion of enterprise investment behavior by the defects of system and mechanism

under the condition of market economy, overcapacity is a normal state. Because in the real economy, no economic entity or department has complete information about market supply and demand, and can only make decisions under the condition of incomplete information, the market will inevitably encounter the situation of short supply and overcapacity. The function of market mechanism and market process is precisely to find and make full use of the supply and demand information scattered in the market, reveal the resource mismatch problems existing in the market (such as short supply, overcapacity, etc.), and then guide the supply and demand adjustment and capacity adjustment through the price mechanism, and force inefficient enterprises and inefficient production capacity out of the market through the competitive mechanism of survival of the fittest, Thus, the market supply and demand are constantly in dynamic balance and the dynamic efficiency of the economy is realized. It should be pointed out that the ability of the market to find resource mismatches, coordinate the balance between supply and demand, and promote economic efficiency is always restricted by the perfection of the market system. As for the problem of overcapacity, the more perfect the market system is, the more quickly and effectively the market can find and correct the problem of overcapacity. On the contrary, it will be difficult for the market to adjust excess capacity in time and effectively, and even aggravate the contradiction

generally, the endogenous overcapacity in the market does not need to be dealt with by other policies other than macroeconomic policies. However, in some special cases, it also needs the attention of policy departments. That is, in the process of a country's economic development, especially when the growth stage changes, with the sharp changes in demand structure, factor cost, environmental cost, comparative advantage and other aspects, labor-intensive industries, raw material industries or labor-intensive production links of some industries will face the pressure of long-term recession and overcapacity after long-term rapid growth. At this time, the government often needs to take some policies and measures to deal with the impact of the sharp adjustment of these industries on employment and social stability, help the smooth withdrawal of excess capacity in these industries, or promote the upgrading of these industries from low value-added links to high value-added links along the industrial chain

China's overcapacity problem has its special side. In the process of economic transition, under the background of fuzzy property rights of land, distorted factor market and imperfect environmental protection system, local governments use tax relief, land concessions, financial subsidies, reducing the price of energy resources, and even conniving at enterprises' polluting the environment and damaging the legitimate rights and interests of workers to attract investment competition, which leads to enterprises' over capacity investment, and then leads to systematic overcapacity. Therefore, institutional distortion is the key to Chinese overcapacity, and it is also an issue that policy departments need to pay close attention to

the transformation of growth stage and the defects of system and mechanism jointly lead to this round of overcapacity

China's economy and the world economy have entered a period of deep adjustment, which is the direct cause of this round of overcapacity. China's economy has entered the transition period of growth stage. With the continuous rise of factor costs, the strengthening of environmental and resource constraints, the determination of investment efficiency, the continuous decline of industry serving the country and the deterioration of total factor productivity, the previous growth mode of over reliance on investment, extensive scale expansion and factor drive will be unsustainable, and the peak demand for many traditional industrial products has been or will be coming, These industries will face a severe situation of overcapacity for a long time. At the same time, the world economy has also entered a period of deep transformation and adjustment, and the international market demand will be depressed for a long time. The awakening of the development of late developing countries, the active promotion of transformation and upgrading in emerging market countries, the development of the third industrial revolution and the Reindustrialization of developed countries will further weaken the traditional competitive advantage of China's manufacturing industry, and China's export manufacturing industry will face the pressure of overcapacity for a long time

Under the background of institutional defects, the vicious competition of local governments in the field of investment attraction is the deep-seated reason for this round of overcapacity. Fiscal decentralization and the official evaluation mechanism with GDP growth as the core make local governments have a strong incentive to attract investment. The local monopoly of land ownership, the price distortion of resources and energy and other factors, the soft budget constraint of the financial system and the lack of ecological and environmental compensation mechanism make low-cost land supply, financial subsidies, providing cheap resources, helping enterprises obtain financial resources, reducing environmental protection requirements and other measures become the main means of the local government's investment war. It is this vicious competition for investment that leads to systematic overcapacity. Local governments adopt various preferential policies to protect local enterprises, which makes it difficult for the market to coordinate the balance of supply and demand and adjust excess capacity, further aggravating overcapacity

defects in industrial policies are an important reason for promoting the formation of overcapacity. China's strategic emerging industry policy gives many support to capacity investment and production links of emerging industry enterprises, which is an important reason for promoting overcapacity in the solar photovoltaic industry and wind power equipment manufacturing industry. In the steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, cement and other industries, the industrial policy of "supporting large enterprises and restricting small enterprises" has led large and medium-sized enterprises to invest in excess capacity in order to obtain key policy support and small enterprises to avoid being restricted or eliminated by policies, thus promoting the formation of excess capacity

the current overcapacity governance policy urgently needs to be adjusted and improved

the current overcapacity governance policy still relies too much on administrative means such as strict approval of new projects, improving access standards, mandatory clearance of illegal capacity and elimination of backward capacity. Experience shows that although this policy model can temporarily alleviate overcapacity in the short term, it is difficult to implement in the long term, and it is inconsistent with the general direction of canceling administrative approval and deepening market system reform, so it cannot fundamentally control overcapacity

how do you understand the quarterly protection and maintenance of universal data testing machine? What should relevant staff pay attention to? As a high-tech testing equipment, it should be standardized, which makes enterprises invest in large-scale equipment in order to avoid being eliminated, but aggravates overcapacity; One sided emphasis on improving market concentration and exaggerated the role of mergers and acquisitions have led to a large number of inefficient restructuring behaviors. From the cases of mergers and acquisitions in steel, non-ferrous metals and other industries in recent years, most mergers and acquisitions enterprises have not reduced production capacity, but expanded production capacity on a large scale

to control overcapacity by administrative means, the policy department must be able to accurately predict the future market supply and demand situation, demand scale and demand structure. However, in the real economy, it is difficult for policy departments to collect and process a huge amount of market information in time, and it is impossible to accurately predict the future market. This often leads to the implementation of capacity investment and investment structure control policies, going beyond the stage of China's economic development and the actual technological capacity of enterprises, and unilaterally pursuing the development of high-tech products and processes, while eliminating the capacity that originally has market demand as a backward industry. Taking the iron and steel industry as an example, the policy of restricting the production capacity of low-end products such as wire rod and rebar has led to a relative shortage of construction steel for a long time. In recent years, the most serious overcapacity of product equipment is precisely the high-end varieties encouraged by policies such as medium and heavy plate, thin plate, H-beam and electrical steel

do not eliminate the defects of the system and mechanism that lead to systematic overcapacity, and do not establish a market-oriented long-term mechanism to resolve overcapacity. Instead, try to identify backward production capacity and products through policy departments, identify advanced production capacity and products, restrict the so-called backward production capacity and products through administrative means, and encourage the way of so-called advanced products and advanced production capacity to deal with overcapacity, Not only can we not fundamentally control overcapacity, but it may lead to the development of overcapacity from low-tech, low-end links and low-end products to high-tech, high-end links and high-end products

establish a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve serious overcapacity

establish a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve serious overcapacity, the key is to deepen reform and straighten out the relationship between the market and the government. First, we must correct the lack of systems and mechanisms that lead to systematic overcapacity. 1. Please read this manual carefully before using it to restrict the improper market intervention of local governments in the process of attracting investment; Second, we must improve and perfect the market system, so that the market mechanism can play a more effective and decisive role in coordinating the balance of supply and demand, adjusting excess capacity, eliminating backward enterprises and backward production capacity, and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading; Third, take appropriate relief measures to deal with the impact of the adjustment of industries with serious overcapacity on employment and social stability, and make up for the lack of market mechanism in the social field

in short, in dealing with the problem of overcapacity, the government must respect the market, improve the market system, strengthen market functions and make up for market deficiencies, so as to achieve a high degree of unity between "giving full play to the decisive role of the market and giving better play to the role of the government". Specifically, we should focus on the following aspects: first, establish a market environment of fair competition, which is the basis for the market survival mechanism, the mechanism of coordinating supply and demand balance and resolving excess capacity, encouraging enterprise innovation and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading mechanism to play a full role; Second, accelerate the reform of factor market, change the situation that the allocation of important resources such as land is dominated by the government, and let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of factor resources; Third, further promote the reform of the financial system, weaken the role of commercial banks as the main support body of soft budget constraints for state-owned enterprises, and gradually realize the marketization of interest rates, so that investors can bear the real cost of capital and risk in the process of credit; Fourth, adjust the fiscal and tax system, straighten out the benefit distribution mechanism between the central and local governments, promote the transparency and democratization reform of local finance, and promote the reform of the tax system related to resources and environment; Fifth, actively promote the reform of environmental protection system and strengthen environmental supervision. At the same time, the formulation and implementation of long-term stable and strict environmental policies are relatively independent of industrial policy objectives such as the control of overcapacity, and strict environmental protection policies cannot be implemented just because there is no overcapacity; Sixth, establish a mechanism for aid withdrawal and auxiliary adjustment and upgrading of industries with serious overcapacity. For industries with serious overcapacity, on the basis of fully respecting the market mechanism and economic laws, we should not directly interfere with the production economy of enterprises

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