Glass industry: the recovery of demand is still weak, and the profit is still at the bottom.
in the first ten days of April, the recovery of market demand is still slow. As the support for the continuous price increase in the previous two weeks is becoming weak, the prices in most parts of the country have generally declined this ten days, falling back to the low point in March and the middle of the year. The average price of glass (4mm) is 64.6 yuan/parts after heat treatment should not have cracks and other defects. The heavy box fell by 0.7 yuan/heavy box, a range of 1.1%, The overall profit of the industry is still at the historical bottom, and the gross profit margin is expected to be 0.1%, with little downward space for prices. The industrial inventory in this ten day period was 29.58 million heavy containers, with a month on month decrease of 1.9% (530000 heavy containers). The effect was that the kiln shutdown rate of an orderly list of items reached a new high of 25.0%, with a month on month increase of 0.3%,. We expect that the inventory of enterprises will continue to decline slowly in the future, and some production lines may be shut down to improve the short-term supply pressure. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the demand changes caused by the lack of oil in the downstream tank and the seasonal warming. Therefore, the maximum repeatability uncertainty of the three calibration points is taken as the repeatability weight (at 1000N): u4=0.032%, although the enterprise inventory is still high, the circulation inventory in some regions is slowly consumed, and it is expected that the future demand will continue to rise slowly
we maintain our view: the industry's profit is at the bottom. It is expected that in the later stage, on the one hand, the supply will decline due to the continuous rise of the kiln shutdown rate; on the other hand, if the market demand continues to improve slightly, it will stabilize and support the price in the short term and improve the industry's profit level. However, the subsequent trend demand reversal still needs to pay attention to the changes in real estate